The year 2023 was one of portent. Deal value fell by 37%. Exit value slid by almost half. Fund-raising dropped across private capital, and 38% fewer buyout funds closed. Interestingly, dollar commitments in buyouts surged as a number of high-performing funds came to market. But it was truly a year of haves and have-nots. Just 20 funds accounted for more than half of all buyout capital raised.
The word for this market is stalled. The culprit was the sharp and rapid increase in central bank rates, which caused general partners to hit the pause button.
The good news? Interest rates appear to have stabilized. Record dry powder is stacked and ready for deployment. Nearly half of all global buyout companies have been held for at least four years. In short, the conditions appear to be shifting in favor of hitting the go button. We will see what 2024 brings.